>> ERIC: TWO YEARS AGO THIS WEEK, THE U.S. DEATH TOLL FROM COVID HIT ONE MILLION PEOPLE.

THE VIRUS IS MUCH LESS PREVALENT AND MUCH LESS DEADLY NOW, EVEN WITH THE NEW SO-CALLED 'FLIRT' VARIANT.

THE VIRUS EPIDEMIOLOGISTS ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NOW H5N1, MORE COMMONLY KNOWN AS BIRD FLU.

WORLD-RENOWNED EPIDEMIOLOGIST MIKE OSTERHOLM IS BACK.

MIKE HEADS UP THE CENTER FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE RESEARCH AND POLICY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

ALWAYS GOOD TO SEE YOU IN PERSON.

WELL, TELL US ABOUT FLIRT.

>> WELL, FLIRT IS ONE OF THE VARIANTS OF COVID THAT WE'RE CONCERNED ABOUT.

IT'S NOW CIRCULATING OUT THERE.

BUT I'M HERE TONIGHT TO REPORT GOOD NEWS.

WE ARE IN THE BEST PLACE IN THE ENTIRE PANDEMIC TODAY AS ANY TIME WE HAVE BEEN.

>> Eric: HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?

>> WELL, TWO THINGS.

ONE IS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO FINALLY WERE VACCINATED OR GOT INFECTED COMBINATION HAVE SOME PROTECTION RIGHT NOW.

AND THE VARIANTS JUST HAVE CHANGED OVER TIME.

SO THAT THEY'RE NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY TO CAUSE SERIOUS ILLNESS.

NOW THAT COULD ALL CHANGE TOMORROW.

BUT I LOOK AT IT IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF DEATHS, YOU TALKED ABOUT THE TOTAL NUMBER, BUT JUST IN LATE 2020-2021, WE WERE SEEING 25,000 DEATH AS DAY A DAY.

THIS PAST WEEK, WE WERE ABOUT 2.5% OF WHERE WE WERE.

THAT'S STILL A LOT, BUT IT'S A MUCH MUCH BETTER PLACE.

>> Cathy: WHAT ABOUT THE VACCINES, THE MOST RECENT VACCINE, THE BOOSTER, CAN IT DEAL WITH FLIRT IN A FAIRLY EFFECTIVE WAY?

>> YEAH.

IT CAN.

WE'RE GOING TO KEEP UP UPDATING THE VACCINE AS TIME GOES ON.

BUT ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE LEARNED, IT'S NOT ABOUT HOW MANY DOSES OF VACCINE IT'S HAD, IT'S WHEN YOU GOT YOUR LAST DOSE.

VACCINE WILL CLEARLY PROVIDE GOOD PROTECTION AGAINST SERIOUS ILLNESSES, HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS FOR PROBABLY FOUR TO SIX MONTHS ND THEN YOU'RE GOING TO NEED TO GET ANOTHER DOSE.

THOSE OF US THAT ARE OVER GE 65, UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS, IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT FOR THAT GROUP TO KEEP GETTING THESE DOSES OF VACCINE.

AND WE CAN KEEP THE NUMBER OF REALLY SERIOUS ILLNESSES BE DOWN.

WE DON'T STOP TRANSMISSION IN THE COMMUNITY BUT I'D BE HAPPY TO TRADE THAT ANY DAY FOR PREVENTING DEATHS.

>> Eric: IS THERE A PUBLIC HEALTH BOILERPLATE THAT EVERY VIRUS THAT COMES THROUGH IS DEALT WITH OR IS EACH ONE SO UNIQUE THAT YOU HAVE TO KIND OF REINVENT THE WHEEL?

>> EVERYONE IS PRETTY UNIQUE, EACH ONE HAS ITS OWN CHALLENGES IN TERMS OF HOW TO DEVELOP IMMUNITY.

SOME VIRUSES, IF I GET INFECTED WITH MEASLES, I'M PROBABLY PROTECTED ALL MY LIFE.

IF I GET INFECTED WITH THE COVID VIRUS, I MAYBE ONLY HAVE PROTECTION FOR FOUR OR FIVE MONTHS SO WE HAVE TO TAILOR EACH ONE.

>> Cathy: LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT BIRD FLU.

ARE OU BECOMING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IT?

WE JUST KIND OF FIGURED IT WAS SOMETHING THAT WAS SPREADING FROM WILD BIRDS TO FOUL, TURKEYS AND DUCKS.

FOWLE.

BUT IS IT WORSE THAN E THINK IT IS?

>> WELL, YOU KNOW, THIS IS ONE OF THOSE EXAMPLES OF WHY YOU HAVE TO BE REALLY HUMBLE IN OUR BUSINESS, BECAUSE TWO WEEKS AGO, I WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SIT HERE AND SAY, BOY, DISCERN ARE REALLY IMPORTANT AND TODAY THEY ARE CRITICAL BECAUSE IT TURNS OUT THAT THIS H5N1 THAT WE'RE CONCERNED ABOUT ACTUALLY IS MULTIPLYING IN THE UDDER OF THE COW, IT HAS RECEPTOR SITES FOR THE BIRD VIRUSES AND IT HAS RECEPTOR SITES FOR THE HUMAN VIRUSES, MUCH LIKE PIG LUNGS.

SO WE'RE CONCERNED ABOUT NOT JUST THE ANIMALS ARE GETTING INFECTED, POSSIBLY TRANSMITTING BUT COULD THEY ALSO GET CO-INFECTED AT THE SAME TIME WITH A HUMAN VIRUS, A BIRD VIRUS, WHEN THAT HAPPENS, THEY CAN IX AND MATCH THEIR GENES, THAT'S WHEN YOU GET PANDEMIC STRAINS.

FOR EXAMPLE, IN 2009 WHEN H5N1 APPEAR FROM MEXICO, THAT CAME OUT OF A SWINE OPERATION WHERE IT WAS, AGAIN, SWINE HAVING THOSE SAME RECEPTOR SITES.

THIS IS A CONCERNING SITUATION, IT'S ONE THAT IS MUCH LARGER THAN WE'VE BEEN BUILTING FOR.

59 FARMS IN NINE STATES, WE KNOW NOW, I THINK IT'S IN ALL 50 STATES, MAYBE NOT HAWAII.

IT'S A REAL CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW.

I DON'T KNOW WHERE IT'S GOING TO GO.

IT'S KILLING LOTS OF DIFFERENT MAMMALS, 40 DIFFERENT MAMMAL SPECIES HAVE BEEN INVOLVED NOW.

HAS BEEN VERY VERY SEVERE ON THINGS LIKE WALRUSES, SEA LIONS, WE'RE SEEING IT IN BEARS, A LOT OF DIFFERENT ANIMALS RIGHT NOW.

>> Cathy: REALLY?

>> YEAH.

>> Cathy: AS YOU SAY, THE GENES WILL START TO MIX.

I MEAN, IS THERE A POINT WHERE, IS THERE ANY SURVEILLANCE OUT THERE?

>> WELL, WE'RE HURTING ON THAT.

THIS IS, I THINK, A DAY OF DISCUSSION REGARDING AGRICULTURE VERSUS PUBLIC HEALTH.

AGRICULTURE PRETTY MUCH SAID, STAY OFF THE FARMS, WE DON'T WANT YOU OUT HERE.

IT'S NOT -- IT'S KILLING THEIR ANIMALS, THEY HAVE A LEGITIMATE CONCERN, WILL IT CAUSE A BUSINESS CHALLENGE FOR THEM, BUT NOT REALLY MAKE THEIR ANIMALS ANY MORE HEALTHIER WITH THIS.

SO OUR SITUATION, THOUGH, WE'RE CONCERNED ABOUT, COULD THESE BE THE ANIMALS THAT PRODUCE THE VIRUS FOR THE HUMANS THAT ARE GOING TO BE DEVASTATING.

>> Cathy: SPEAKING OF ANIMALS, CWD, BRAIN WASTING DISEASE IN WHITE-TAIL, DEER, OF COURSE, IS A CONCERN.

I'M WONDERING, THERE WAS THIS STUDY, IT APPEARS THAT IT MIGHT NOT JUMP TO HUMANS?

>> WELL, THIS STUDY, WHICH WAS A GOOD STUDY, AND IT WAS CONDUCTED BY THE N.I.H., AND IT'S ONE OF THE RESEARCHERS IS PART OF OUR RESEARCH GROUP.

BUT WHAT THIS STUDY LOOKED AT WAS REALLY JUST ONE MECHANISM FOR TRANSMISSION, POTENTIALLY BETWEEN CWD PRION IN DEER INTO HUMANS.

AND CLEARLY THERE ARE MANY OTHER ASPECTS, AVENUES THAT WE HAVE TO EXPLORE.

SO IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT WE STILL DON'T HAVE A RISK, AT LEAST IN THIS PARTICULAR STUDY, IT SHOWS THAT THE BARRIER IS STILL HIGH.

BUT IT SURELY DOESN'T MEAN THAT IT'S NOT ONE THAT YOU CAN CROSS OVER.

>> Eric: THANKS FOR THE UPDATE.

>> C